Published on July 23, 2025

Beyond the Portfolio - Markets Near All-Time Highs – Navigating Opportunity and Risk

In this episode, we dig deeper into one of the most pressing questions we're hearing from investors. With markets hovering near all-time highs, is there still room for upside? We'll explore what the markets may be pricing in, how earnings and rates factor into the outlook and what could still go right or wrong as we navigate the back half of the year.

Written by Michael Miranda, CFA®

Mike Miranda sits down with Dan Phillips, Chief Investment Officer for U.S. Wealth, to examine investment opportunities as markets hover near record levels in mid-2025. They explore how markets have rebounded 8% year-to-date, after a 15% decline earlier in the year, driven by expectations of more moderate tariff outcomes and anticipated trade deals ahead of the August 1st deadline. Dan discusses the "death of American exceptionalism" narrative that pushed the dollar down over 10% against other currencies, arguing this trend may reverse as global investors recognize the continued strength of U.S. markets and companies.

The conversation covers how a modest economic slowdown could benefit equities through potential Fed rate cuts while supporting secular growth companies, particularly in the tech and AI sectors. With corporate earnings expected to accelerate from 6% growth in 2024 to 8% in 2025, and 10% in 2026, Dan highlights expanding margins and productivity gains as key drivers. However, he identifies inflation as the primary risk that could derail the bull case, especially with higher tariffs on the horizon, while emphasizing that thoughtful optimism must remain grounded in earnings fundamentals and long-term discipline.