Weekly Strategy Perspectives - Putting a Sweater on the Octopus – employment paradoxes and paradigms

“There is no risk-free path for policy as we navigate the tension between our employment and inflation goals.”

– Jerome Powell

Through Line: The wellbeing of the labor market preoccupied commentators, policy makers, Fed watchers and job hunters for much of 2025. Technological advances and substantial policy pivots prompted companies to slow-walk hiring. At the same time, analysis of employment numbers was complicated by leadership changes in the agencies responsible for producing key data series (as well as by substantial revisions to prior prints and the complete absence of several crucial reports). We examine some of these factors and offer fresh views re how to frame the outlook for employment, this most vital indicator of national economic health.

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