Long-Term Outlook: Capital Market Assumptions - 2026 Edition

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK: CAPITAL MARKET ASSUMPTIONS: 2026 EDITION

The BMO annual capital market assumption process establishes 10-year annualized return forecasts across major asset classes, set within a backdrop of long-term macro themes. These forecasts, combined with risk and correlation assumptions, serve as the necessary inputs for investment portfolio construction and financial planning exercises. We use a “forward-looking, historically aware” approach – first seeking to identify historical relationships between asset classes and what drove prior asset-class returns and then exploring how those relationships may change over our 10-year investment horizon. We express these forward-looking views through our long-term themes – covering geopolitical pivots, technological innovation and evolving capital markets.

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