Markets fell after Trump’s Iran “excursion,” with sharper drops overseas than in the U.S., but the pullback now sits close to the historical ~10% drawdowns typically seen after oil‑driven geopolitical shocks—suggesting rebound
After President Trump announced his “excursion” into Iran, equity markets took their own trip – downward. Post-Iran strike, the broad regional indexes experienced max drops ranging from a manageable ~6% in the U.S. (Russell 3000) to a more head-turning ~9% and ~13% internationally (MSCI EAFE and MSCI Emerging Markets, respectively). All of this is occurring as we anniversary Liberation Day (April 2 of last year) – an interesting footnote, as current events could be considered Liberation Day II, given both the potential opportunity in front of the Iranian people as well as the potential rebound in equity markets. On the latter, history shows previous oil-related geopolitical events cause an average ~10% drawdown over ~50 days – not far from where we sit today.